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  #21  
Old 03-04-2020, 09:01 PM
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It definitely gets curiouser and curiouser................. Gov't not doing much information-wise to help us make a considered decision. We are hoping that the companies we are traveling with cancel things so it is on them and not us. Time will tell.
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  #22  
Old 03-04-2020, 09:49 PM
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Default Corvid-19 & Travel

The cruise line we are tentatively planning to go with in August has extended the due date for final payment for 3 months.

I suspect they are seeing a good number of people cancelling / deferring to a later date cruise.
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Last edited by crwilli; 03-04-2020 at 10:02 PM.
  #23  
Old 03-05-2020, 08:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LarsT View Post
I was supposed to go to Milan in a couple of weeks. Cancelled that. Booked a trip to Napa. Now California is becoming a hot spot. Hmmm

Wine Country has minimal cases and we're still fairly low risk, assuming we practice common sense protocols.



Have some travel coming up in Aug to Europe; let's just say everything is booked with flex cancellation as of right now.
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  #24  
Old 03-05-2020, 09:11 PM
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I have travel to Switzerland booked for mid-May for a family event, and Switzerland seems to be a bit of a hotbed. We’re watching to see how things develop over the next few weeks, but it may be we pull the plug, since my wife and I are both in the higher risk category.
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  #25  
Old 03-05-2020, 10:39 PM
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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  #26  
Old 03-06-2020, 06:38 AM
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Just heard from our cruise company and we are being offered a no-fee reschedule on any cruise between now and 12/31/21 plus an on-board credit of $300. That works for us. Now to get with the airline and hotels. Think we'll go to Ottawa for the Canadian Tulip Festival in early May unless this turns into an epidemic. Maybe a few days in Quebec City. Can add a couple of silhouette matches to to the schedule, as well. All is not lost.

Best of luck to everyone on your travel plans.
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Last edited by Formerly YB-2; 03-06-2020 at 06:47 AM.
  #27  
Old 03-06-2020, 07:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Formerly YB-2 View Post
Just heard from our cruise company and we are being offered a no-fee reschedule on any cruise between now and 12/31/21 plus an on-board credit of $300. That works for us. Now to get with the airline and hotels. Think we'll go to Ottawa for the Canadian Tulip Festival in early May unless this turns into an epidemic. Maybe a few days in Quebec City. Can add a couple of silhouette matches to to the schedule, as well. All is not lost.

Best of luck to everyone on your travel plans.
This is already a global pandemic...and its going to become considerably more widespread through the remainder of the year. This is not going to "blow over" by the Spring or Summer.

From some information I came across today based on published clinical and scientific data re: COVID-19.
How Fast Will It Spread?

Using some statistical modeling, it appears that it is possible to reach 54 million infected within 12 months.


Back of the napkin estimate of possible Covid-19 spread in the USA.

Assumptions (IF):
- R0 = 3
- infectious period: 30d
- US infected today: 34×3=102

Projected # of infections:
2,700 in 3 months
75k in 6 months
2M in 9 months
54M in 12 months

(I'm not a virologist)
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  #28  
Old 03-06-2020, 07:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Puma Cat View Post
This is already a global pandemic...and its going to become considerably more widespread through the remainder of the year. This is not going to "blow over" by the Spring or Summer.

From some information I came across today based on published clinical and scientific data re: COVID-19.
How Fast Will It Spread?

Using some statistical modeling, it appears that it is possible to reach 54 million infected within 12 months.


Back of the napkin estimate of possible Covid-19 spread in the USA.

Assumptions (IF):
- R0 = 3
- infectious period: 30d
- US infected today: 34×3=102

Projected # of infections:
2,700 in 3 months
75k in 6 months
2M in 9 months
54M in 12 months

(I'm not a virologist)
Puna Cat,

Not a virologist either...I am wondering / hoping if these numbers can ramp down or not multiply out so rapidly with the preventive measures being taken in many countries.
  #29  
Old 03-06-2020, 08:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SCAudiophile View Post
Puna Cat,

Not a virologist either...I am wondering / hoping if these numbers can ramp down or not multiply out so rapidly with the preventive measures being taken in many countries.
I am hoping that, too, and I know that, psychologically, folks are "hoping" this is just going to "go away"....but the statistical epidemiological models predict that things are going to get considerably worse before they get better, based on the video I saw watched of an interview on CBS NEWS with an epidemiologist.

https://youtu.be/iDelUkpFm60

I'm really not trying to be the bearer of bad news, but as a professional scientist who worked in the area of molecular diagnostics his entire career, its important to "level set" expectations so that people can be mindful and prepare appropriately. "Burying one's head in the sand" and making assumptions based on hunches doesn't change the epidemiology.

From Jacob Canfield today:

Will This Be A Severe Pandemic?

Severity is based on having both a HIGH mortality rate and a HIGH R0

SARS and MERS had 7-9% mortality rates, but their R0 was low (high death, low spread.)

The H1N1 Flu pandemic was opposite
(low death, high spread)

#CoronaVirus has both


A very good compendium of information compiled by Jacob Canfield on Twitter here; this data is based on peer-reviewed scientific literature.
https://twitter.com/JacobCanfield/st...02290997141505
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Last edited by Puma Cat; 03-06-2020 at 08:15 AM.
  #30  
Old 03-06-2020, 08:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Puma Cat View Post
I am hoping that, too, and I know that, psychologically, folks are "hoping" this is just going to "go away"....but the statistical epidemiological models predict that things are going to get considerably worse before they get better, based on the video I saw watched of an interview on CBS NEWS with an epidemiologist.

https://youtu.be/iDelUkpFm60

I'm really not trying to be the bearer of bad news, but as a professional scientist who worked in the area of molecular diagnostics his entire career, its important to "level set" expectations so that people can be mindful and prepare appropriately. "Burying one's head in the sand" and making assumptions based on hunches doesn't change the epidemiology.

From Jacob Canfield today:

Will This Be A Severe Pandemic?

Severity is based on having both a HIGH mortality rate and a HIGH R0

SARS and MERS had 7-9% mortality rates, but their R0 was low (high death, low spread.)

The H1N1 Flu pandemic was opposite
(low death, high spread)

#CoronaVirus has both


A very good compendium of information compiled by Jacob Canfield on Twitter here; this data is based on peer-reviewed scientific literature.
https://twitter.com/JacobCanfield/st...02290997141505
Very good feedback...
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