Quote:
Originally Posted by SCAudiophile
Puna Cat,
Not a virologist either...I am wondering / hoping if these numbers can ramp down or not multiply out so rapidly with the preventive measures being taken in many countries.
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I am hoping that, too, and I know that, psychologically, folks are "hoping" this is just going to "go away"....but the statistical epidemiological models predict that things are going to get considerably worse before they get better, based on the video I saw watched of an interview on CBS NEWS with an epidemiologist.
https://youtu.be/iDelUkpFm60
I'm really not trying to be the bearer of bad news, but as a professional scientist who worked in the area of molecular diagnostics his entire career, its important to "level set" expectations so that people can be mindful and prepare appropriately. "Burying one's head in the sand" and making assumptions based on hunches doesn't change the epidemiology.
From Jacob Canfield today:
Will This Be A Severe Pandemic?
Severity is based on having both a HIGH mortality rate and a HIGH R0
SARS and MERS had 7-9% mortality rates, but their R0 was low (high death, low spread.)
The H1N1 Flu pandemic was opposite
(low death, high spread)
#CoronaVirus has both
A very good compendium of information compiled by Jacob Canfield on Twitter here; this data is based on peer-reviewed scientific literature.
https://twitter.com/JacobCanfield/st...02290997141505
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Last edited by Puma Cat; 03-06-2020 at 08:15 AM.
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