Quote:
Originally Posted by Puma Cat
This is already a global pandemic...and its going to become considerably more widespread through the remainder of the year. This is not going to "blow over" by the Spring or Summer.
From some information I came across today based on published clinical and scientific data re: COVID-19. How Fast Will It Spread?
Using some statistical modeling, it appears that it is possible to reach 54 million infected within 12 months.
Back of the napkin estimate of possible Covid-19 spread in the USA.
Assumptions (IF):
- R0 = 3
- infectious period: 30d
- US infected today: 34×3=102
Projected # of infections:
2,700 in 3 months
75k in 6 months
2M in 9 months
54M in 12 months
(I'm not a virologist) |
Puna Cat,
Not a virologist either...I am wondering / hoping if these numbers can ramp down or not multiply out so rapidly with the preventive measures being taken in many countries.