We're entering the panic phase. Nobody knows exactly how this will play out, but the worst case scenario everyone fears (boat anchor tube amps) is still a long way off from reality.
If Russian tube production folds, China is indeed our best long-term hope for good power tubes in sustainable quantities. But the reports of a shuttered Shuguang factory now become extremely concerning. There's no guarantee they'll be able to restart what they had, much less an increased capacity.
Russian tube production might NOT fold. This is what I hope most for: peace talks bear fruit soon, and exporting resumes on Jan 1 2023. Even if the export ban is extended, there could be "round about" ways to get them (through China) at increased prices - but only if production continues. Will this be enough for New Sensor to sustain production? Or might Russia even take over the plant (which would be bad news indeed)?
Folks with amps designed for KT150 and KT170 tubes are in the most precarious position. There just isn't a huge amount of this product on shore, unlike KT120 and almost everything else.
Companies like VAC have already announced their preparedness for this event (everyone saw red flags when covid started), and have large tube stocks on hand. I hope they implement stringent controls for disbursement of replacement tubes: e.g. users must provide proof of ownership for an amp, and then they can exchange a set of worn tubes for a new set on that component. This is where established companies with a track record of great service can really shine.
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